Abstract

The paper presents a statistical analysis of electricity spot prices in a deregulated market in New South Wales, Australia, in the period 10 May, 1996 – 7 March, 1998. It is unusual that a single set of data, such as this, allows one to consider a relatively systematic sequence of statistical problems, each resulting in clear, although not always obvious, solutions. This is the reason why these data and their analysis can be used as a rel atively good base for training in practical statistical analysis. Existing for merly as a report, the material has been used in lecture courses in several universities in Australia and New Zealand.

Highlights

  • There are many years since in New South Wales, Australia, the market on electric energy was de-regulated: generators produce the electric energy and sell it to consumers basically on demand and supply principle

  • In between generators and consumers there are distributing companies. These companies buy the energy from generators and sell it “in retail” to us, customers

  • The author was using this work as a material for practical training for students in quantitative analysis of financial and economic data at UNSW and at VUW. It is used for the same purpose in some other universities

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Summary

Introduction

There are many years since in New South Wales, Australia, the market on electric energy was de-regulated: generators produce the electric energy and sell it to consumers basically on demand and supply principle. There is enough political interference, as it is unavoidable and necessary when commodity of this importance is traded, the actual mechanism of forming the eventual price from requested prices (so called “bid-stacks”) is very interesting. It deserves separate description and analysis in game-theoretic terms. It is used for the same purpose in some other universities. We tried not to allow ourselves to introduce any sort of complications, unless there was very clear reason and unless the complications were unavoidable

Daily Averages
Outliers
Change-point Problem
Findings
Net Prices on Options

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