Abstract
This study presents statistical analysis of electricity generation in Nigeria using two different statistical models, namely; multiple linear regression model and box-Jenkins’ autoregressive model of order 1. Two climatic variables (rainfall and temperature) were used as the explanatory variables. Data on electricity generation in Nigeria between 2002 and 2014 were obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin while Data on rainfall and temperature between 2002 and 2014 were extracted from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) abstract. Test of model fitness and forecasting accuracy were done using generic statistical approach which include coefficient of determination and root mean square error. The prediction accuracy of the two statistical models was compared and the best model was selected. Furthermore, correlation between power generation and the two climatic variables (rainfall and temperature), were carried out and the result reveals that the amount of rainfall has significant and positive relationship with power generation in Nigeria. Specifically, rainfall has correlation value of r = 0.927 with the power generation at probability, p = 0.000 and the relationship was significant at 1% (p 0.05) and the relationship was significant at 5% (p<0.05). Among the two statistical models, multiple linear regression model was selected as the best model as it gave the highest value of coefficient of determination (r2=99.77%) and the least Root Mean Square Error (60.27%).
Highlights
Electricity generation and supply is indispensable in modern living in any industrial or commercial society
This study examines how the power generation will be affected by climate change or variables such as temperature and rainfall which is regarded as one of the greatest threat to humanity in the 21st century
The data on electricity generation obtained from central bank of Nigeria statistical bulletin and the two climatic variables extracted from National Bureau of statistics abstract between 2002 and 2014 were analysed based on the two different statistical models
Summary
Electricity generation and supply is indispensable in modern living in any industrial or commercial society. Electricity production in Nigeria over the years varied from gas – fired, oil – fired, hydroelectric power stations to coal-fired with hydroelectric power system and gas – fired system taking precedence [1,2,3,4]. Nigeria being rapidly growing in development, industry and commerce, is battling with the problems of continually expanding consumption and increase in demand for electricity. Madueme [5] observed that in Nigeria, the national peak demand for electric energy is on the increase as a result of many development activities. He went further to state that in spite of this, the total power generation has not matched this increase. It is a fact that most communities in Nigeria regard the construction of access roads, installation of pipe borne water, building of town halls and so forth as the rudiments to their development, yet electricity promotes instantly their social and economic life as many services and facilities become readily available [6]
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