Statistical analysis of cloud layers and solar irradiations for all seasons in Toyohashi city, Japan

Abstract

Several solar irradiation forecasting methods are being developed toward economically efficient solar power generation. Among these, the method that utilizes all sky imagers to estimate the direction of cloud movement above certain observation points is able to forecast fluctuations in solar irradiation with localized temporal resolution (∼30 min) through observation of shadows cast by clouds. The one-layered cloud is usually assumed in forecasting the direction of cloud movement. However, in reality, multilayered clouds may move in different directions in the sky. While such multilayered clouds may have effect on forecast accuracy, the extent to which multilayered clouds affect the solar irradiation and the generated solar power has never been reported. Therefore, the purposes of this study are (1) to give the dataset to know the effect of multilayered clouds and (2) to decide whether the multilayered clouds have to be considered in forecasting of solar irradiation. We analyzed the number of cloud layers and their effect on the solar irradiation, the generated solar power, and the clearness index through statistical analysis for all seasons in Toyohashi city, Japan. The dataset used to analysis includes data with 4381 h. The analytical results show that multilayered clouds were observed for ∼40% of the daytime duration even in winter. In addition, the results show that multilayered clouds were observed even when the solar irradiation, the generated solar power, and the clearness index were high, which suggests that the effect of multilayered clouds must be considered. In addition, it will be shown that the maximum number of cloud layers to be considered is 3 from statistical analysis.