Abstract
This study has been intended to apply the cox proportional hazard model to review the determinant factors of survival time and discrete time homogeneous semi markov model to predict the clinical progression of AIDS disease by secondary data obtained from the antiretroviral therapy unit of Dilla and Hawassa University Referral Hospitals. Patients were followed for a median of 34 months. Of total sample, 517 (68.4%) were female and 239 (31.6%) were male. In the followed up period, 110 (14.5%) patients died and 646 (85.5%) patients were censored. The cox regression result indicated that the survival time of the HIV patient was significantly connected with adherence level, age, alcohol use, CD4, condom use, functional status, marital status and WHO stage. The outcome of homogenous semi-markov model showed that the survival probability of a patient increased when CD4 count increased. The study is suggested that the above significant variables should be viewed as significant component of the routine clinical care for patients on ART and patients require checking CD4 count in the suitable day as physician arrange to know their disease stage.
Highlights
General Objective: The main objective of this study is to investigate the determinants of survival time among adult human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/AIDS patients and stochastic modelling of AIDS disease progression, using the data obtained from Hawassa and Dilla University Referral Hospital antiretroviral therapy (ART) centers
Samling Technique: In this study Simple random sampling method was adopted as an appropriate sampling design for selecting a representative sample of the adult HIV/AIDS patients based on their Referral Hospital ART center (Hawassa and Dilla University)
About Methodology: Survival Analysis and Stochastic were applied to investigate the determinants of survival time among adult HIV/AIDS patients and stochastic modelling of AIDS disease progression, using the data obtained from Hawassa and Dilla University Referral Hospital ART centers
Summary
Since the recognition of the disease, HIV has infected close to 71 million people, and more than 30 million have died due to AIDS till 2007. More than 66% of the people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA) are in Sub-Saharan Africa, where AIDS is the leading cause of death. In 33 countries, HIV incidence has fallen by more than 25% between 2001 and 2009. Of these countries, 22 are in sub-Saharan Africa. The biggest epidemics in Sub-Saharan Africa Ethiopia, Nigeria South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe have either stabilized or are presentation signs of declines [17]
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