Statistical analysis and projection of wood veneer industry in Turkey: 2007 - 2021

Abstract

While development and change of the social life in recent years has noticeably increased demand for forest products, the production, export and import of the forest products accordingly changed in terms of quantity and quality as well. This change have, of course, transformed the forest products economic sector to a more dynamic structure, ensuring it find itself a place in the leading ranks among other sectors. In this development, in addition to the increased social and international demand, particularly the EU-oriented international development and policies have also played important role. In this study, models are established and projections are developed for production, import and export of Turkish wood veneer industry by econometric method. Parameters of the econometric modeling rest on time series of past 25-years and projection was made for the next 15 years around on basis of a variety of reasonable assumption and scenarios. For establishment of the most appropriate regression models for the projection operations, while the production, import and export were dealt with as dependant variables, the industrial wood sales by General directorate of Forestry (m3), gross national product per capita, population, building area (m2) as per occupancy permit, construction materials price index, economic growth, consumer price index, producer price index and foreign exchange were used as independent variables, all of which are considered to be effective in the production, import and export quantities of the forest industry products. Key words: Wood veneer trade, production, import, export, regression analysis.