Statistical analysis and modeling of factors of resource potential of agricultural development in the region

Abstract

In modern realities, the issue of effective use of the existing resource potential of the regions is acute, the solution of which directly affects the effectiveness of the functioning of industrial complexes of both individual territories and the country as a whole. Agriculture consists of a system of interconnected industries that produce various types of agricultural products, ensuring the food security of the state and the quality of life of the population. The purpose of the work was to analyze the resource potential of regional agriculture and identify a set of relevant factors (based on processing the flow of statistical data) on the example of the Orenburg region. The economic and statistical apparatus using the Statistica software package was used as a tool for carrying out correlation and regression analysis and building models. The article analyzes various interpretations of the concept of "potential". The components of the resource potential are considered and the factors characterizing them are ordered. A comparison of a number of indicators of agricultural production (the volume of agricultural production in millions of rubles, the size of the acreage of crops, the volume of gross harvest of grain and potatoes, the number of cattle and pigs) by regions of the Volga Federal District is given. The leading subjects of the district have been identified, among them the Orenburg Region, on the materials of which methods of correlation and regression analysis have been implemented and a set of models has been built. As an example, an econometric model of the impact on the volume of agricultural products of a number of factors (characterizing the resource potential of the region) is given, including the area of agricultural land, the average annual number of agricultural workers, the introduction of organic and mineral fertilizers per hectare of crops, the cost of fixed assets by type of economic activity, the volume of investments in fixed capital of agriculture farms. The analysis of the variables included in the model is carried out. Taking into account the identified factors, a set of measures aimed at improving the efficiency of agricultural production in the region is formulated.