Statistical analysis and long-term prediction of seismicity for linear zones

Abstract

The model of the Poisson point process is too vague for earthquake locations in space and time: earthquakes tend to cluster in middle distances and to repulse in large ones. The Poisson point model with variable density makes it possible to describe the tendency for clustering but does not reveal the periodicity of clusters. The author proposes the point-process model where locations of points are determined not by densities of point distribution, but by densities of interpoint differences distribution. In the model, a latent periodicity is revealed and used for prediction of a point process. In 1983, the point-process model prediction was made for the Kuril Islands for 1983–1987 and two signs of danger in time and location were determined. Then they were confirmed by strong earth-quakes. In 1989, a similar prediction was made for North Armenia. The Spitak earthquake in 1988 is clearly seen from the data of previous earthquakes.