Statistic Methods for Assessments of Risks and Damages at Nuclear Power Plants

Abstract

Many high development countries have not the natural hydrocarbon deposits. That is why NPP energy production is constantly and intensive increases. For example, in France. The corresponding treats under NPP exploitation also are increasing, that caused by different natural and manmade factors, including as attractive objects for possible directed terrorist attacks. Correct assessments of corresponding risks and damages are necessary for any NPP at all periods: its projecting, building and exploitation under its complex integrated emergency management. Here we try to analyze some possible methods of NPP risk assessments. Early we predicted the irradiation doses and corresponded risks for population under implementation of Russian Federal Program:” Development of Russian atomic energy industrial complex on 2007-2020 years at 10 homeland NPP, that operated in normal non disasters regimes during two last decades. But such data are absent for NPP, that have been or will be under non prognostic emergencies. It is connected with the following facts. The part or total of needed information may be obtained only after NPP disasters. Some NPP are located in the dangerous regions and exposed to intense negative natural responses (earthquakes, tsunami, etc.) and manmade ones, when NPP are located in some dangerous conflicts zones with high level of possible terrorism threats. Here the using of classic methods of expertise risk NPP assessments are not correct and often impossible at all. Some needed thematic data may be obtained from primary virtual computer tests of individual NPP with imitation of possible disasters. It allows to plan the actions for NPP operators and special services under serious NPP disasters or may be to prevent them at all. These thematic problems, connected with the following NPP: Fukusima, Seversk in Tomsk region, Armenian, the future NPP in Kazakhstan and nuclear terrorism are also under consideration in this article.