Abstract
AbstractIn this essay we examine the statistical significance of electoral college system in US Presidential Election. We compare it with general election to see whether those two different election systems make a difference in determining the result of an election. We start with the model that only contains several states with the same number of voters. We first calculate the theoretical probability that the current candidate in the lead during the middle of the election differs from the final winner. We then using MATLAB to build up a simulation of the election by Electoral college and the election by popular votes. We compare our simulated results to the predicted outcomes from the theoretical probability to check the correctness of our simulation program. Finally, we will incorporate all the states into the program to generate two simulated presidential elections in US, one using popular votes and another using electoral college. This paper will end in a conclusion of the comparison between these two simulated elections.KeywordsUS electionElectoral collegePopular votesComparison
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