Statewide burden of cancer attributable to alcohol use in the United States in the last three decades, projections of deaths to 2040: A benchmarking study.

Abstract

10575 Background: Cancer stands as the 2nd leading cause of deaths and disability in the United States (US), and among the numerous contributing factors, modifiable risk factors play a significant role in exacerbating this burden. Within the spectrum of cancers, alcohol consumption ranks as the second leading attributable cause of death, as per the Global Burden of Disease Cancer Attributable Risk Factor Study. Methods: Employing the GBD protocol, we conducted an estimation of deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to cancer caused by alcohol consumption in the US. This comprehensive analysis was stratified by age, gender, year, and geographical location throughout the US, from 1990 to 2019. To project future trends, we utilized time-series regression techniques to forecast deaths until the year 2040. Results: The total number of cancer-related deaths in the US surged from 19,898 (95%UI: 17,791-22,149) in 1990 to 34,455 (30,542-38,388) in 2019. Concurrently, DALYs increased from 532,533 (480,249-586,646) in 1990 to 854,351 (764,549-949,378) in 2019, and YLLs rose from 501,639 (452,446- 554,400) in 1990 to 802,493 (717,123-891,789) in 2019. The highest annual percentage change (APC) in ASR for mortality was observed in West Virginia, with a 32% increase, followed by Tennessee at 27%. Conversely, the District of Columbia witnessed the most significant decrease, with a 30% reduction from 1990 to 2019. In terms of DALYs rates, the highest increases were observed in West Virginia (27%) and Oklahoma (21%). Males bore a greater overall burden compared to females, with an APC in deaths of 97% vs 40% and an APC in DALYs of 87% vs 26%. The highest number of deaths occurred in the 60-64 age group, with 5,228 cases in 2019, while DALYs reached 154,034 in the same year. Projections indicate that the total number of deaths is expected to increase by 49,230 by the year 2040. Conclusions: In 2019, cancer-related deaths attributed to alcohol use represented 4.42% of all cancer mortality cases. From both a public health and clinician perspective, the study's results highlight the urgent need for comprehensive strategies to address the growing burden of cancer associated with alcohol use. Efforts should focus on prevention, early intervention, and support for individuals struggling with alcohol-related cancer risks. [Table: see text]