State-Transition modelling of classical swine fever to evaluate national identification and recording systems — General aspects and model description

Abstract

A State-Transition simulation model was designed, aimed at evaluating national Identification and Recording systems (I and R systems) with respect to their epidemiological impact on outbreaks of Classical Swine Fever (CSF). In the model, a modified Markov chain approach was used to simulate between-herd spread of CSF. The model's basic inputs were data on I and R system, region and CSF control strategy. These inputs could be altered separately, allowing evaluation of various situations. General aspects related to the modelling approach were described, as were the model's main features. To study its credibility, the model was applied to CSF outbreaks in Belgium. The design and results of this application were described. The model was concluded to be a useful tool for decision support regarding improvement of national I and R systems.