State updating in a distributed hydrological model by ensemble Kalman filtering with error estimation

Abstract

For flood simulation in small- and medium-sized catchments, discharge observations may be used to update model states of a distributed hydrological model to improve performance. The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) has been widely used for hydrological assimilation due to its relative simplicity and robustness. An advantage of the EnKF is that it is easy to include different sources of uncertainty, therefore the choice of error model is crucial for the application of the EnKF assimilation. This paper describes an EnKF assimilation scheme for estimating error models using the maximum a posteriori estimation method (MAP). We test this scheme in two small and medium-sized catchments in China with different characteristics, and in addition compared the performance differences under two kinds of rainfall forcing. We show that MAP is beneficial in specifying error models and providing reliable ensemble spread. The assimilation scheme can effectively ameliorate the degradation of distributed hydrological model performance due to uncalibrated model parameters and/or poor quality of input data.