State public pension management over the business cycle

Abstract

The surging stock market in the late nineties lifted the funding level of most pension plans and led to plan management decisions that left them vulnerable to the stock market decline of 2000-2002. In this study, an analysis was conducted on the descriptive data of 51 state pension plans for the period 1998-2003 and it was found that overfunded plans were more likely to substantially increase benefits while simultaneously reduce contributions. This led to widespread underfunding and a need for sudden increase in contributions as market conditions grew worse and funding levels dropped sharply. This investment cycle emphasizes the need for more prudent surplus management strategies to protect pension plans from the consequences of stock market volatility.