State management of import dependency and state’s economic security ensuring: New analysis to evaluating and strategizing

Ruslan Lupak,Ruslan Boiko,Marta Kunytska-Iliash,Taras Vasyltsiv

doi:10.5267/j.ac.2021.1.023

Abstract

The need to improve public administration of import dependency was characterized (in the example of Ukraine) and the signs of its influence and interconnection with ensuring the state’s economic security are characterized. The methodological sequence of import dependency evaluation is substantiated. Using Hotelling’s method of transformation (the method of principal components), the multiplicative form is presented and the integral index of import dependency of the country’s economy is calculated. Harrington’s interval scale is used to summarize the results of the integral evaluation of import dependency. The results of the evaluation have confirmed the high level of import dependency of the Ukrainian economy and clear tendencies for its strengthening, which is critically threatening to the country’s economic security. Using the tool of multivariate dynamic regression modeling, a statistically significant correlation between the level of import dependency and the country’s economic security is established. The economic and mathematical descriptive model of state management of the state’s economic security is formed, which is embedded in a methodical approach to strategizing the state policy of import substitution. The purpose of the state management of import substitution, the parameters of ensuring the country’s economic security agreed with it, the strategic priorities of the state policy of import substitution and the indicators of their implementation are determined.

Highlights

In order to ensure the economy’s development and achieve the necessary level of the state’s economic security there must be prerequisites that allow these tasks to be fulfilled
The saturation of the market with imported products testifies to the curtailment of the investment and consumer demand for products of domestic manufacturing, narrowing of the country’s industrial potential and technological development, other negative tendencies that occur in states unable to independently cover the demand of the population and enterprises in the domestic market
While evaluating import dependency the following coefficients are used: import and export coverage, import quota, the GDP lead over import, and others, the values and characteristics of which serve as the basis for the analysis and formation of an information and analytical base in the field of the state policy of import substitution (Blaum et al, 2019; Simeon et al, 2017; Ramanarayanan, 2017)

Summary

Introduction

In order to ensure the economy’s development and achieve the necessary level of the state’s economic security there must be prerequisites that allow these tasks to be fulfilled. Non-progressive economies are objectively incapable of ensuring competitiveness, maintaining stability and sustainability, as it is difficult to achieve optimal ratios in the areas of production and consumption of goods (services) as the technological development of the world economy is rapid. In such circumstances, their external dependency on basic groups of goods (services), technological developments, energy resources, etc., becomes apparent. According to the results of their calculations, conclusions about the level of the state import dependency and its influence on the state economic security can be made

Methods

Results

Conclusion