Abstract
To understand the consequences of anthropogenic and environmental changes for wildlife populations, it is important to study how individuals differ in their sensitivity to environmental change and whether this depends on individual characteristics. An individual's reproductive performance may provide an integrative, unidimensional proxy of an individual's characteristics. In this study, we define an individual's characteristics by three such reproductive states, namely successful, failed and non‐breeders in the previous year. We used a 16‐year dataset of individually marked breeding Eurasian OystercatchersHaematopus ostralegusto examine the interannual fluctuations in reproductive success and survival among breeding states, and their state‐dependent sensitivity to environmental conditions. Environmental conditions included available biomass of the main prey species of breeding Oystercatchers (Ragworm, Baltic Tellin and Lugworm), tidal height, which reflects one of the main causes of nest loss (flooding), and conditions that may impact the energetic requirements during incubation, such as temperature. We also included environmental variables measured in winter, including available biomass of the main winter prey species (Blue Mussel and Common Cockle) along with factors that may affect food availability and energetic requirements for homeostasis, namely bivalve weight loss, windchill, winter severity and precipitation. Breeding birds that were successful the previous year had higher survival and were more likely to remain successful, in comparison with failed or non‐breeders. The effects of environmental conditions acted in the same direction on reproductive success but had opposite effects on survival among the three breeding states, especially for windchill and Blue Mussel biomass. The contrasting state‐dependent effects of the environment on survival thus averaged out when examining consequences for lifetime reproductive nest success (LRnS); instead, LRnS was largely influenced by environmental conditions acting upon reproduction. Our study indicates that an individual's previous breeding state provides an integrative measure of heterogeneity in individuals' sensitivity of reproduction and survival to environmental change. Incorporating previous breeding state as a source of individual heterogeneity in population modelling may improve predictions of future population dynamics in a rapidly changing world.
Highlights
State-dependent environmental sensitivity of reproductive success and survival in a shorebird JURRIAN VAN IRSEL,1,2,3* MAGALI FRAUENDORF,3,4 BRUNO J
Our study suggests that previous breeding state provides an integrated measure of these traits defining individual heterogeneity in sensitivity to environmental change that are linked to reproductive success and survival
The effect and the magnitude of the effects of environmental conditions differed among breeding states and environmental effects on survival even contrasted among breeding states
Summary
State-dependent environmental sensitivity of reproductive success and survival in a shorebird JURRIAN VAN IRSEL,1,2,3* MAGALI FRAUENDORF, BRUNO J. Quantifying how individuals vary in their response to environmental change has often taken an individual quality perspective In these studies, phenotypic characteristics of individuals like body mass, body size, telomere length or other physiological measurements were used to determine heterogeneity in individual sensitivity of survival and reproductive success to environmental change (Barbraud & Weimerskirch 2006, Weladji et al 2008, Clark 2009, Hamel et al 2009, Bauch et al 2013, Le Vaillant et al 2015, Angelier et al 2019). The proportion of the population with consistently high reproductive performance, may have important implications for population growth rates under a changing frequency of unfavourable conditions induced by environmental change
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