State and Regional Variation in the Effects of Trade on Job Displacement in the US Manufacturing Sector, 1982–1999

Abstract

Worker-level data from the 1984–2000 Displaced Worker Surveys are employed to examine the effects of trade on manufacturing workers’ probabilities of job displacement. Observed changes in import and export penetration rates yield increases in displacement probabilities for the North Central, Middle Atlantic and South Central regions yet lower displacement probabilities for the Plains/West and Pacific regions. Changes in import and export price indexes lead to increases in displacement probabilities for the Pacific, Southeast and Northeast regions and decreases for the South Central and Middle Atlantic regions. However, while the influences of imports and exports on job displacement vary considerably across states and regions, the estimated net effect of trade on displacement probabilities is minor, generally speaking, when compared to the combined influence of other factors.