Abstract
From more than 40 years African swine fever (ASF) is endemic in Sardinia. Historically, areas at higher risk are located throughout some inland parts of this island where domestic pigs are still illegally kept in semi-wild conditions, living in contact with the local wild boar population, thereby creating perfect conditions for disease endemicity. A new eradication plan (EP-ASF15-18) has been ongoing for the past 3 years, based on a comprehensive strategy adapted to the local situation and focused on strong actions on domestic pig farms, wild boars (WB), and the third Sardinian typical involved population [illegal free-ranging pigs (FRPs)]. A fundamental aspect of the plan is the classification of pig farms as “controlled” or “certified,” based on clinical, structural, and biosecurity characteristics. The eradication plan also provides for strong action against illegal farms and pig meat marketing channels. In addition, this plan establishes specific control measures for WB hunting and ASF checks. Each control strategy is specifically based on municipality risk level, to focus actions and resources on areas at higher risk of endemic or re-emerging ASF. Thus, precise risk classification is fundamental to this goal. The aim of the present work was to establish an ASF risk index, to provide a summary measure of the risk level in the Sardinian municipalities. This synthetic measure can express the different aspects of a multidimensional phenomenon with a single numerical value, facilitating territorial and temporal comparisons. To this end, retrospective data (years 2011–2018) were used. The ASF risk index is the result of the algorithmic combination of numerical elementary indicators: disease prevalence in the suid populations, WB compliance with EP-ASF15-18, domestic pig compliance with EP-ASF15-18, and presence of FRPs. A negative binomial regression model has been applied and predictors calculated to obtain a risk index for each municipality. The result of the risk analysis was discussed and considered according to expert opinion and consensus. The results of this study, expressed as risk score and classified into five risk levels, can be used to help define actions to be carried out in each Sardinian municipality, according to the risk assessment for the territory.
Highlights
African swine fever (ASF) is one of the most serious infectious diseases affecting domestic and wild pigs, responsible for serious economic and production losses [1]
This very low genetic variability determines the placement of strains into one of two clusters depending on the temporal distribution: subgroup III, including viruses isolated up to 1990, and subgroup X, including isolates identified from 1990 to 2009 [68, 69] A total of 11 outbreaks occurred during the first 8 months of last year whereas from September 2018 to the present, no virus evidence has been reported on domestic pigs (DPs) farms in Sardinia
The quantitative risk analyses performed here has taken into account many different features related to pigs bred in backyard farms, and the local wild boars (WB) population and pigs that are illegally bred in a free-range manner, as well as the role of socioeconomic and demographic factors
Summary
African swine fever (ASF) is one of the most serious infectious diseases affecting domestic and wild pigs, responsible for serious economic and production losses [1]. Since 2007, the disease has been reported in multiple countries including the Russian Federation, Belgium, Hungary, Bulgaria, Latvia, Moldova, Poland, Romania, Russia, and Ukraine, in both domestic and wild pigs [7, 8]. Starting in August 2018, the disease has been spreading and having a considerable impact on the pig population of the Asian continent, primarily in China. It should be noted that China has over 50 per cent of the world’s pig population, and continue to report outbreaks to date [9]. New outbreak in Slovakian backyard has been reported [11]
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