Abstract
Skill scores can be used to compare deterministic (also known as single-valued or point) forecasts made using different models at different locations and time periods. To compute the skill score, a reference forecasting method is needed. Nonetheless, there is no consensus on the choice of reference method. In this paper, three classes of commonly used references methods, namely, climatology, persistence, and their linear combination, are studied in a day-ahead solar forecasting scenario. Day-ahead global solar irradiance forecasts with an hourly resolution are generated using research-grade data from 32 sites around the globe, over a period of 1 year, in an operational manner. To avoid exaggerating the skill scores, it is generally agreed that the most accurate naïve forecasting method should be chosen as the standard of reference. In this regard, the optimal convex combination of climatology and persistence is highly recommended to be used as the standard of reference for day-ahead solar forecasting.
Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
