Stand, species, and tree dynamics of an uneven-aged, mixed conifer forest type

Abstract

Stand-level equations are presented that project future merchantable tree survival, pole-tree basal area, and sawtimber basal area. Total basal area (excluding ingrowth) is the sum of the pole-tree and sawtimber components. Ratio equations are used for eight species (seven softwoods and one hardwood) to compute the change in species abundance and species basal area over time. Individual-tree mortality is predicted with a logistic function, while individual-tree diameter growth is predicted as a function of stand and individual-tree attributes. The individual-tree and species-level equations are adjusted so that tree frequency and basal area are consistent with the stand-level projection equations. Total ingrowth is computed with a stand-level projection equation and is distributed with a parameter recovery method using the uniform distribution. The presence or absence of ingrowth for a given species is determined with a discriminant function, while the proportion of total ingrowth allocated to a species is predicted with a logistic function.