Abstract
The NSW Government's 2020 proposal to replace stamp duty on all properties with an annual tax based on unimproved land values is estimated to increase home ownership by 6.6%, through changes in purchaser holding periods, a shift of tax burden from investors to owner‐occupiers and a relaxed deposit constraint. The model of home ownership highlights the importance of purchasers' holding periods, with implications for the effects of tax reforms, institutional ownership of rental properties and population growth. The paper provides an easily calibrated model of home purchases that could be used to quantify home ownership effects of various tax reforms.
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