Abstract
To guide policymaking, decision makers require a good understanding of the long-term drivers of food security and their interactions. Scenario analysis is widely considered as the appropriate tool to assess ‘wicked problems’, such as ensuring global food security, that are characterized by a high level of complexity and uncertainty. This paper describes the development process, storylines and drivers of four new global scenarios that are specifically designed to explore global food security up to the year 2050. To ensure the relevance, credibility and legitimacy of the scenarios, they have been developed using a participatory process, involving a diverse group of stakeholders. The scenarios consist of storylines and a scenario database that presents projections for key drivers, which can be used as an input into global simulation models.
Highlights
The question on ‘how to feed the world in 2050’ has received increasing attention from policy makers, the media and scientists since the surge in food prices in 2007/2008 (FAO, 2009)
The elite have invested in research and development to create private solutions for global environmental problems, which have resulted in a number of path-breaking technologies to overcome the problems of climate change, reduce pollution and waste and protect the environment
This paper describes the development process and results from a participatory scenario exercise to construct a set of global scenarios for global food security analysis
Summary
The question on ‘how to feed the world in 2050’ has received increasing attention from policy makers, the media and scientists since the surge in food prices in 2007/2008 (FAO, 2009). To progress on this question and propose solutions, policy makers need insights into the future development of food availability, access, utilization and stability (FAO, 1996) as well as the underlying drivers, such as population growth, economic development and technical change, which jointly determine the state of future global food security. Wicked problems are public problems that are characterized by a high level of complexity, uncertainty and systemic challenges that impact across local to global scales. The consequence is that different perceptions of stakeholders will lead to diverse and often opposing definitions of the problem
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