Stages in Geographical Prediction

Abstract

A sequence of stages in long-term geographical prediction is proposed. It begins with the prediction of future heat and moisture conditions and the character of future crustal movements, which in turn are used for predicting the future course of evolution of natural-territorial complexes as integral systems. An example of the latter type of forecast would be the prediction of the impact of a reservoir on the surrounding territory. At this point the role of man must be fed into the predictive process. This stage involves an assessment of the future needs of society, an economic evaluation of the resource potential of a territory (including manpower resources) and the choice of an optimal course of development for the territory. The next stage involves an evaluation of the impact of man-made structures on the environment and, in this connection, the use of the concept of geo-engineering system is proposed, involving the interaction between engineering structures and natural systems. Types of interaction may be analyzed in terms of the types of economy represented by energy-and-industry cycles.