Stable clinical risk prediction against distribution shift in electronic health records

Abstract

The availability of large-scale electronic health record datasets has led to the development of artificial intelligence (AI) methods for clinical risk prediction that help improve patient care. However, existing studies have shown that AI models suffer from severe performance decay after several years of deployment, which might be caused by various temporal dataset shifts. When the shift occurs, we have access to large-scale pre-shift data and small-scale post-shift data that are not enough to train new models in the post-shift environment. In this study, we propose a new method to address the issue. We reweight patients from the pre-shift environment to mitigate the distribution shift between pre- and post-shift environments. Moreover, we adopt a Kullback-Leibler divergence loss to force the models to learn similar patient representations in pre- and post-shift environments. Our experimental results show that our model efficiently mitigates temporal shifts, improving prediction performance.