Stable Analysis and Forecast of Real Estate Economic System in China

Abstract

In recent years real estate industry in China has been developing very fast. The present problem is how to get a stable system for this industry, so that it can be developed in a healthy way. Real estate economic system itself is a very complex system, so the interacting relationship between key factors in this system must be studied in order to grasp accurately and forecast its running rules. This paper uses pulses process theory under an assumption that the real estate system is closed and can not be influenced by outer factors. Then key factors of the system must be chosen, at the same time the main relationships of these key factors must be found. The following step is to draw a signed digraph based on these factors and their relationships. By using real statistic data of this system the author can get a real weighed signed digraph and an adjacent matrix. The next step is to give the starting p(0)=nu(0) a value, such as give valuable nu <sub xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">3</sub> a sudden increase of 1, changes of the whole system can be gained. The values of all the changes caused by the sudden increase of nu <sub xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">3</sub> show us clearly how these key factors influence each other. According to simple pulse process stable theory, the non-vanishing characteristic values of the adjacent matrix must be equal to or smaller than 1, at this time the system is stable. This paper only studies on systematic stability under the condition that one factor changes. In the following research multi-factors will be studied. This kind of condition will be more close to real system. So based on the result of these research work, some macroscopic policies of real estate industry can be adjusted to make the real estate industry run more stably