Stabilization Policy, Infrastructure Investment, and Welfare in a Small Open Economy

Abstract

This paper studies a joint monetary and fiscal policy response to an increase in public infrastructure investment in emerging market economies. I extend the neoclassical growth model to a two-sector open economy setting, and introduce heterogeneous agents to examine the distributional effects of public investment on welfare. My results show that the effects of public infrastructure investment hinge crucially on how the increases in government spending are ultimately financed. Monetary policy without fiscal adjustment for financing infrastructure expansion is inflationary, and has sizable crowding-out effects on private consumption and investment over shorter horizons. Fiscal stabilization policy is critical for the sustainability of rising government spending and price stability. With the joint effort of monetary and fiscal policy, infrastructure investment brings in significant welfare gains to the economy. Public investment has major distributional effects across agents, and the choice of fiscal instruments matters both quantitatively and qualitatively. Saving households accrue the highest welfare gains as a result of new bond issuance, while hand-to-mouth consumers are better off when non-distorting taxes are adjusted.