Abstract
Small barrier estuaries are common in temperate latitudes where catchment runoff is small. The entrance state controls the tidal exchange and hence the salinity regime and flushing. To aid the study and management of these estuaries, predictions of the stability and future evolution of the estuary entrance must be made. This paper demonstrates the application of the attractor method to determine the stability of a wide sample of estuaries on the south-eastern coast of Australia, using only data available in broad-based public data bases. The method uses a simple hydrodynamic-sediment balance model, run for thousands of scenarios and thousands of tide cycles to identify the long-term dynamic equilibria - the attractors. The model predictions are shown to match stability data in the data bases and to provide realistic predictions of the entrance evolution. The results have direct applicability to high-level assessment of coastal assets and to optimal selection of model scenarios for more detailed modelling of any selected estuary.
Highlights
Small barrier estuaries are common in temperate latitudes where catchment runoff is small
The model results are in the form of the attractors that define the preferred states of the estuary entrance
Public databases of estuary properties have been used to provide the data to run the model and so to obtain attractor maps for a representative set of estuaries on the New South Wales (NSW) coast of south-east Australia, ranging from tidal bays to tidal lagoons
Summary
Small barrier estuaries are common in temperate latitudes where catchment runoff is small. Open/closed barrier estuaries are found most frequently in temperate latitudes where catchment runoff is small, such as parts of the Spanish coast, South Africa and south-eastern Australia. These estuaries display a wide range of behaviors To guide model scenario selection and to provide insight into their long-term evolution, a simple entrance stability model has been developed. Public databases of estuary properties have been used to provide the data to run the model and so to obtain attractor maps for a representative set of estuaries on the New South Wales (NSW) coast of south-east Australia, ranging from tidal bays to tidal lagoons. As averaged inflows and sediment supply are used, the effects of storms are not reproduced in detail, only as averaged changes in depth, so the method applied in this paper cannot be applied to very small estuaries where a single storm may cause closure (Thuy et al, 2013); time dependent studies have been done but require the model to be fully calibrated for each estuary
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