Stability and optimal control analysis for studying the transmission dynamics of a fractional-order MSV epidemic model

Abstract

In this research paper, we study the transmission dynamics of the maize streak virus disease in agriculture using fractional calculus. Our fractional-order model (FOM) consists of fractional differential equations within Caputo fractional derivative (CFD). Further, we investigate the mathematical analysis of this FOM such as the positivity and boundedness of the projected solutions, compute the control reproduction number (Rc) by the next-generation matrix method, examine the local stability by using Routh–Hurwitz conditions and global stability by using fractional LaSalle’s invariance principle for all possible equilibrium points. A sensitivity analysis is conducted on the parameters integrated into Rc to evaluate how accurately the parameter estimation fits. Additionally, we present further numerical results on the FOM to demonstrate the obtained analytical results. Then, we formulate the fractional optimal control problem (FOCP) depending on the suggested FOM with three control efforts u1, u2 and u3 called respectively, prevention, quarantine and insecticide chemical. Also, we study this FOCP analytically to derive the fractional necessary optimality conditions (NOCs) based on a kind of Pontryagin’s maximum principle. After that, we solve these fractional NOCs numerically where the state and co-state variables are subject to the left CFD. We present various strategies with different combinations of suggested controls to examine the best strategy for decreasing the transmission of MSV in maize plants, where each one of these strategies is able to reduce the maize streak disease (MSD) at the period of control time. We perform simulations of outcomes using MATLAB by developing the forward–backward sweep method utilizing the fractional Euler method. Moreover, some figures are presented to show the impact of both control interventions, change in weight factors and fractional order within the suggested strategies. We can observe that the fractional order plays a significant role in limiting the spread of MSD where the obtained results illustrated that the MSD can be reduced through the suggested FOM, which has a notable influence on plant epidemiology.