Stability and Numerical Simulations of a New SVIR Model with Two Delays on COVID-19 Booster Vaccination

Abstract

As COVID-19 continues to threaten public health around the world, research on specific vaccines has been underway. In this paper, we establish an SVIR model on booster vaccination with two time delays. The time delays represent the time of booster vaccination and the time of booster vaccine invalidation, respectively. Second, we investigate the impact of delay on the stability of non-negative equilibria for the model by considering the duration of the vaccine, and the system undergoes Hopf bifurcation when the duration of the vaccine passes through some critical values. We obtain the normal form of Hopf bifurcation by applying the multiple time scales method. Then, we study the model with two delays and show the conditions under which the nontrivial equilibria are locally asymptotically stable. Finally, through analysis of official data, we select two groups of parameters to simulate the actual epidemic situation of countries with low vaccination rates and countries with high vaccination rates. On this basis, we select the third group of parameters to simulate the ideal situation in which the epidemic can be well controlled. Through comparative analysis of the numerical simulations, we concluded that the most appropriate time for vaccination is to vaccinate with the booster shot 6 months after the basic vaccine. The priority for countries with low vaccination rates is to increase vaccination rates; otherwise, outbreaks will continue. Countries with high vaccination rates need to develop more effective vaccines while maintaining their coverage rates. When the vaccine lasts longer and the failure rate is lower, the epidemic can be well controlled within 20 years.