Abstract
Climate change is now considered a significant threat to terrestrial biodiversity. Species distribution models (SDMs) are among the modern tools currently used to assess the potential impacts of climate change on species. Pipiza Fallén, 1810 is a well known aphidophagous hoverfly genus (Diptera, Syrphidae) at the European level, for which sampling has been conducted across the region, and long-term databases and geo-referenced datasets have been established. Therefore, in this work, we investigated the potential current distributions of the European species of this genus and their response to future climate change scenarios, as well as evaluated stability in their ranges and potential changes in species-richness patterns. We applied three climate models (BCC_CSM1.1, CCSM4, HadGEM2-ES) to four representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, RCP 8.5) for two time frames (2050 and 2070). Our results show that the distribution of most Pipiza species may slightly differ under different climate models. Most Pipiza species were predicted not to be greatly affected by climate change, maintaining their current extent. Percentages of stable areas will remain high (above 50%) for the majority of studied species. According to the predicted turnover of species, northern Europe, could become the richest in terms of species diversity, thus replacing Central Europe as the current hot spot.
Highlights
Throughout Earth’s history, both gradual and dramatic climate changes have occurred, and many species have adapted to these alterations
Most of the Pipiza species assessed as a part of the current investigation are broadly distributed throughout Europe, from Fennoscandia through central and southern Europe
P. carbonaria is found only in the Balkans and Austria, and P. laurusi only occurs in SE Europe (Montenegro, FYR Macedonia and Greece) (Figs 1–3)
Summary
Throughout Earth’s history, both gradual and dramatic climate changes have occurred, and many species have adapted to these alterations. Current climate change is more rapid than the rate recorded in recent history and is threatening biodiversity [1]. After land-use change, current climate change is considered the second most significant threat to terrestrial biodiversity [2]. Among altered climate parameters, increased temperature is the most relevant for the distribution of living organisms [3]. The impact of changes in the levels of atmospheric.
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
