Stability and Change in Family Size Expectations Over the First Two Years of Marriage

Abstract

Family size expectations expressed in 1955 by a national probability sample of white married women in the childbearing years well predicted the aggregate fertility of the cohort for the period 1955-1960. A longitudinal study to assess the relationship of aggregate and individual stability in expectations and the relationship of these to other factors was conducted in Detroit. Responses about expected number of children were obtained in 1962 from a sample of zero-parity women (just married) or who had borne a first second or fourth baby in July 1961. A second and third set of expectations were obtained from the same women in 1962 and 1963. At each interview zero parity women expected on the average .2 more children than the first and second parity women. The family size expectations of the zero parity women were as stable over the interval as were the expectations of mothers of one two or four children. Therefore results supported the view that family size expectations are formed very early in the family life cycle.