Stability Analysis and Optimal Control for Yellow Fever Model with Vertical Transmission.

Abstract

In this study, a deterministic model for the transmission dynamics of yellow fever (YF) in a human–mosquito setting in the presence of control measures is constructed and rigorously analyzed. In addition to horizontal transmissions, vertical transmission within mosquito population is incorporated. Analysis of the mosquito-only component of the model shows that the reduced model has a mosquito-extinction equilibrium, which is globally-asymptotically stable whenever the basic offspring number (N_{0}) is less than unity. The vaccinated and type reproduction numbers of the full-model are computed. Condition for global-asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium of the model when N_{0} > 1 is presented. It is shown that, fractional dosing of YF vaccine does not meet YF vaccination requirements. Optimal control theory is applied to the model to characterize the controls parameters. Using Pontryagin’s maximum principle and modified forward–backward sweep technique, the necessary conditions for existence of solutions to the optimal control problem is determined. Numerical simulations of the models to assess the effect of fractional vaccine dosing on the disease dynamics and global sensitivity analysis are presented.