Stabilité internationale et économie nationale

Abstract

International stability and the national economy The definition of national and international stability gives rise to many problems but the main ones to be discussed here do not render necessary too detailed definitions. It is sufficient to adopt some vague criteria relating to the simpler problem whether a certain change or a certain development means more or less international stability. The main problems concern how changes in the internal economy of any one country may disturb the international payments system and how such disturbances in their turn react on the individual economies giving rise to economic policy changes on the part of the respective governments. The stability of international payments relations may be affected by the following types of disturbance within a single country : general fluctuations of income and employment ; wage and price changes ; shifts in demand and supply schedules ; fluctuations in capital movements ; changes in the terms of trade ; structural changes ; growth trends. These different types do not usually appear in isolation but are are inter-related. Policy measures acting directly on the external balance may be import controls or devaluation. Import controls have many drawbacks both for the country using them and for its trading partners. As long as excess demand persists devaluation is no solution either. As regards internal stabilization policies it appears that different countries have unequal possibilities of bringing about external balance by means of a generally restrictive policy. This leads to a consideration of other methods such as increased reserves and flexible exchange rates. If the long-run problem is considered the conflict between development and stability may become acute. Where a shortage of savings in the developing countries is involved, an increased movement of capital internationally may provide a solution. Finally, divergent growth trends may be at the origin of international instability.