SSP Long Run Scenarios for European NUTS2 Regions

Abstract

In this paper we illustrate the development of a modeling framework aimed at producing detailed quantitative estimates for economic variables, consistent with Shared Socio-economic Pathways, and their assumptions about national income and population. Our model not only provides information on industrial production levels, employment, consumption patterns, trade flows and other macroeconomic variables, but disaggregates them further at the sub-national level, for European NUTS2 regions. Estimates are produced by an especially designed dynamic general equilibrium model (G-RDEM), augmented with a regional down-scaling module. The latter takes into account the different sectoral composition of the regional economies, their endowments of primary resources, as well as the possible existence of structural and agglomeration externalities. After describing the methodology, the paper presents an illustrative sample of results produced by the model, focusing on Italian regions and the Shared Socio-economic Pathway 1 in the period 2011-2051.