Square Pegs and Round Holes

Abstract

This article explores the relationship between the social construction of risk, uncertainty and evaluation in the field of development cooperation. It explores the assumption that risk and uncertainty are unusually high in development cooperation. Perceptions of risk and uncertainty are cultural constructs. Several authors have identified perceptions of uncertainty as one of the most important dimensions in organizational cultures. An analysis of evaluation reports shows that risk and uncertainty often emerge as a consequence of operational factors. Evaluations indicate that uncertainty is higher in technological and environmental areas. Furthermore, there are a number of management techniques of handling risk and uncertainty that could be used on development projects. Why have evaluations not influenced the conception of risk and uncertainty more than they have? Three characteristics of the evaluation system are described and discussed. First, the evaluation system is found to send mixed signals in respect of risk and uncertainty. Second, the messages are weak. Evaluation reports are not sufficiently anchored in theory and practice to command respect and belief among a widespread constituency. Third, the signals from the evaluation system have become routine. The messages no longer alarm management and decision-makers. The article concludes by assessing the future of risk and uncertainty management, in particular how evaluation systems may become more relevant in this field.