Abstract

 
 
 The river floods are among the most dangerous natural disasters in the world. Each year, the spring floods cause the significant material damage in the different countries, including Ukraine. Knowledge of trends in such floods, as well as their probabilistic forecast, is of great scientific and practical importance. In last decades, the decreasing phase of cyclical fluctuations of the maximum runoff of spring floods has been observed on the plain rivers of Ukraine, including the Southern Bug River. In addition, there is an increase in air temperature. So, the actual task is the determine the modern probable maximum discharges estimates of spring floods in the Southern Buh River Basin as well as their comparison with the estimates that were computed earlier. It gives an opportunity to reveal possible changes of the statistical characteristics and values of the probable maximum discharges, to analyze and to discuss the reasons for these changes. For the investigation, we used the time series of the maximum discharges of spring floods for 21 gauging stations in the Southern Buh River Basin since the beginning of the observations and till 2015. The method of the regression on the variable that is based on the data of analogues rivers was used to bringing up the duration of the time series and restoration of the gaps. In the study, the hydro-genetic methods for estimation of the homogeneity and stationarity of hydrological series, namely the mass curve, the residual mass curve and the combined graphs. The distributions of Kritskyi & Menkel and Pearson type III for the frequency analysis were used. It has been shown in this study that the maximum discharges of spring floods of time series are quasi-homogeneous and quasi-stationary. It is explained the presence in the observation series of only increasing and decreasing phases of cyclical fluctuations, their considerable duration, as well as the significant variability of the maximal flow. The series of maximal runoff of spring floods are very asymmetric, which significantly complicates the selection of analytical distribution curves. The updated current parameters of the maximal spring flood runoff have not changed significantly. It can be assumed that such characteristics have already become stable over time, as the series of maximal runoff of spring floods already have phases of increasing and decreasing of long-term cyclic fluctuations.
 
 
Highlights
In the world, the extreme floods on the rivers cause considerable and prolonged flooding of the densely populated territories, which cause to damage a myriad of infrastructures such as buildings, roads, bridges, and barrages and sometimes losses of human lives
Examples of such curves for some rivers are shown in the Fig. 2. The analysis of these graphs shows that the observations series are inhomogeneous, because a point of inflection is on them, after which the tendency of maximal discharges changes. This type curves indicates the absence of unidirectional stable trends of maximal discharges of spring floods of the Southern Bug River basin
The residual mass curves were created to identify the reasons for such a tendency of maximal discharges of spring flood of the rivers (Fig. 3)
Summary
The extreme floods on the rivers cause considerable and prolonged flooding of the densely populated territories, which cause to damage a myriad of infrastructures such as buildings, roads, bridges, and barrages and sometimes losses of human lives. Since the natural disaster as extreme floods is the basis for planning and design of various hydraulic structures, hydrological forecasting, flood risk reflection characteristics such as trends of extreme floods and its changes, and its formation conditions, the probable maximal flood and its characteristics have a great practical importance. The determining of the probable maximal flood is the practical importance, especially for the planning, design, and operation of hydrotechnical structures (Apel et al, 2004; Blöschl et al, 2013; Okoli et al, 2019). The important task is obtaining reliable flood estimates. This can be achieved by using appropriate methodological approaches (McKerchar and Macky, 2001; Kjeldsen, 2015; Okoli et al, 2019)
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