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Abstract
This study analyzes the impact of COVID-19 deniers on the spread of COVID-19 in Germany. In a first step, we establish a link between regional proxies of COVID-19 deniers and infection rates. We then estimate the causal impact of large anti-lockdown protests on the spread of COVID-19 using an event study framework. Employing novel data on bus stops of travel companies specialized in driving protesters to these gatherings, and exploiting the timing of two large-scale demonstrations in November 2020, we find sizable increases in infection rates in protesters' origin regions after these demonstrations. Individual-level evidence supports the main results by documenting that COVID-19 deniers engage less in health protection behavior. Our results contribute to the debate about the public health costs of individual behavior that has detrimental externalities for the society.
Highlights
Societal cohesion is key in conning the outbreak of diseases that threaten collective survival
Similar gures are reported for Germany and France (10 percent). How does this group contribute to the spread of COVID-19? Do COVID-19 deniers behave dierently than the majority of the population? And do large protests of this group aect the transmission of the disease? In this study, we show that the spread of COVID-19 can be substantially increased by individuals who downplay the disease's public health threat and reject both recommended and mandatory behaviors aimed at curtailing its transmission
This study looks at how COVID-19 deniers contribute to novel coronavirus infection rates
Summary
Societal cohesion is key in conning the outbreak of diseases that threaten collective survival. Even with over 100 million people infected by the disease worldwide and more than 2 million associated deaths, a notable segment of the population denies the threat posed byor even the existence ofthe novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2. In Germany, the Robert Koch Insitut (RKI) advises disease and epidemic control and collects ocial statistics about COVID-19 cases and related deaths. The rst COVID-19 infection in Germany was conrmed on January 27, 2020 near Munich, Bavaria. It was followed by clusters in Baden-Württemberg and North Rhine-Westphalia, with the rst death reported on March 9, 2020. As a result of these clusters as well as the arrivals of people from countries with high infection rates, COVID-19 started to disperse more broadly throughout Germany.
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