Abstract
This chapter examines whether civilian nuclear assistance raises the likelihood that countries will begin nuclear weapons programs, particularly if they experience an international crisis after receiving aid. Using a theory of proliferation, it shows that nuclear cooperation can result in nuclear weapons pursuit in the absence of protracted security threats. The chapter analyzes two cases using qualitative analysis: nuclear decision making in South Africa and India. Statistical tests revealed a correlation between nuclear cooperation agreements and nuclear weapons program initiation, while security threats condition the relationship between peaceful nuclear cooperation and nuclear weapons pursuit becomes stronger as countries experience a greater number of militarized disputes with other states. There is no evidence that states without weapons programs engage in “nuclear hedging.”
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