SPREADING PATTERN OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES: SUSCEPTIBLE INFECTED RECOVERED MODEL WITH VACCINATION AND DRUG-RESISTANT CASES (APPLICATION ON TB DATA IN INDONESIA)

Abstract

Mycobacterium tuberculosis is the causative agent of the infectious illness tuberculosis (TB). Indonesia is the world's third-highest TB burden country. TB transmission is prevented by the BCG vaccination. A directly observed treatment, short-course (DOTS) treatment approach can cure TB illness. Recurrent TB may occur due to either relapse or reinfection with drug-resistant bacteria. The goals of this article are formulating the SVITR model with relapse and drug-resistant cases, applying the model to the TB data in Indonesia, determining the model accuracy, determining the spreading pattern and interpreting the result, and simulating the parameters. Literature study and application methods are used in this research. The SVITR model with relapse and drug-resistant cases is a first-order nonlinear differential equation system. The model is applied to TB in Indonesia based on annual data from Indonesian Health Profile, World Bank, and WHO. The model is solved by the fourth-order Runge-Kutta method. The model is accurate enough to explain the spread of TB in Indonesia with a MAPE value of 15,5%. The spreading pattern of tuberculosis infection is upward from 2010 to 2050. In 2050, there are still 8.115.976 TB cases in Indonesia. Hence in 2050, Indonesia's free of TB target has yet to be achieved. Simulation is conducted by increasing BCG vaccination to 95%, reducing contact with TB patients to 5%, increasing treatment to 95%, and lowering relapses and drug-resistant cases to 0.00005%, so the Indonesia free of TB target in 2050 can be achieved from 2042.