Abstract
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which emerged from Wuhan, China, is now a pandemic, affecting across the globe. Bangladesh also is experiencing the rapid growth of COVID-19 infection and death cases started from 8th March 2020. The purpose of providing a simple yet effective explanatory model for prediction of the future evolution of the contagion and verification of the effectiveness of the containment and lockdown measures in Bangladesh. In this study, using a modified SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) model a forecast is generated to predict the trends of COVID-19 cases in Bangladesh. The epidemic model was proposed to accommodate the effects of lockdown and individual based precautionary measures. Data has been taken and analyzed for before and after the movement control order (MCO) and during the MCO period. Modified SIR model in this work offers us an idea how the outbreak would progress based on the current data. It also has estimated that, the peak in terms of the number of infected cases will start from last of June 2020. For the total population (100%) the model gets the peaks at 214875 (infected cases) and 7743 (death cases). For the 90% population, the model shows the peaks at 244356 (infected cases) and 9100 (death cases). Analysis revealed that the lockdown and recommended individual hygiene can slow down the outbreak but unable to eradicate the disease from the society. With the current infection and death rate and existing level of personal precautionary the number of infected individuals will be increasing.
Highlights
A novel coronavirus, formerly called 2019-nCoV, or SARSCoV-2 (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2) by ICTV (International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses) caused an outbreak of atypical pneumonia, officially called COVID-19 (Coronavirus Disease 2019) by World Health Organization (WHO) first in Wuhan, Hubei province in December 2019 and rapidly spread out in the whole China as well as most of the parts of the world [1]
Modified SIR model in this work offers us an idea how the outbreak would progress based on the current data
It is seen that the infection rate of COVID-19 in Bangladesh exposing the sign of increasing trend for the last few days with the average growth rate of ~ 0.12
Summary
A novel coronavirus, formerly called 2019-nCoV, or SARSCoV-2 (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2) by ICTV (International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses) caused an outbreak of atypical pneumonia, officially called COVID-19 (Coronavirus Disease 2019) by World Health Organization (WHO) first in Wuhan, Hubei province in December 2019 and rapidly spread out in the whole China as well as most of the parts of the world [1]. The global impact and the public health threat of COVID-19 is the most serious seen in a respiratory virus since the 1918 influenza pandemic [4]. Both COVID-19 and the 1918 influenza pandemic are associated with respiratory spread, a significant percentage of infected people with asymptomatic cases transmitting infection to others and a high fatality rate [5]. Bangladesh recorded first death a 70-year-old man due to COVID-19 on March 18. By 6th of June 2020, 384851 tests had been performed as the disease spread to 64 districts and the country counted 63026 cases and a death toll of 846 persons [7]
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