SPREAD OF THE RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA ON WESTERN BALKANS – CASE STUDY IN SERBIA

Abstract

Russian aggression on Ukraine increased spread of disinformation worldwide. Western Balkans and Serbia are also a long-term subject for Russian active measures. Those active measures have several priorities which are only intensifying in crises periods. Russian strategic task for Western Balkan is to prevent full western integrations. So far, Russia has succeeded to blockade Bosnia and Herzegovina and Montenegro very successfully through their proxies on the field. Like during corona crisis, same patterns are deployed before and after beginning of the aggression on Ukraine. This work aims to identify, explain and counter main anti-western narratives in context of the Russian aggression. No doubts Russia is losing its international capacity but capacity for cover activities is still untouched on Western Balkans. In this scientific work authors will make a brief case study on Serbia and try to provide better understanding why Russian disinformation is so successful in Serbia. What are the main triggers? What can be done to prevent such subversive activities? Also, authors will trace and analyze the main advisories’ narratives from their deployment to their effects. Russian active measures have the potential to trigger inner and international conflicts in the Western Balkan region. They have already successfully divided the society. Meanwhile Serbia had a parliamentary election with results which are in direct connection with the war in Ukraine. Right wing parties achieved their record success in the last 10 years. Our article will try to find what can be done in a way to prevent Russian active measures. What is the role of media, state institutions and civil societies? This challenge will unfortunately be a security challenge in the future years, full western integration will not be a “silver bullet” for Russian activities. Russia is a global challenger that will exploit every possibility to endanger West. Non-integrated territories will be more vulnerable to became anti-western launch pad in the region. Keywords: active measures, security, politics, economy, disinformation, international relations, strategy