Sprawl of the COVID-19 in changing scenario: a methodology based on social interaction

Abstract

PurposeThere are several methods developed in the recent past to predict the spread of COVID-19 in different countries. However, due to changing scenarios in terms of interaction among people, none could predict the case close to the actual figures. An attempt to simulate people's interaction due to economic reopening concerning the confirmed cases at various places as per changing situation has been made. The scenario development method's base lies in the hypothesis that if there were no inter-state transportation during India's lockdown after May 24th, the number of infection cases would have started lowering down in a normalized progression.Design/methodology/approachThis study has developed three scenarios from the worst to the business-as-usual to the best in order to project the COVID-19 infections in India concerning infections observed from January 30th till May 24th, 2020, since the domestic flights became operational from May 25th, 2020, in India.FindingsBased on the observed cases till May 24th, the rise of cases is projected further in a random progression and superimposed to the normal progression. The results obtained in the three scenarios present that worst case needs complete lockdown, business-as-usual case needs regulatory lockdown and best case assures complete lockdown release by the second week of September 2020. This study suggests the preparedness and mitigation strategy for a threefold lockdown management scheme in all-inclusive.Originality/valueThe work has been done on a hypothesis which is solely original.