Sport drop-out during adolescence: is it real, or an artefact of sampling behaviour?

Abstract

ABSTRACTUnderstanding sport participation and drop-out are important for sport management. Many children sample or play multiple sports before specialising. However, quantifying these behaviours is challenging. Sport registration databases are potentially useful for this purpose. However, given privacy and data security issues, identification and direct linking of data records of individual participants across sports are not possible. This study demonstrates a feasible methodology for approximate cross-linking of de-identified data and thereby quantifying the extent of sampling behaviour, and hence investigating to what degree the decline in community club-based sport participation observed during adolescence is attributable to a ‘sampling to specialisation’ effect as opposed to drop-out from sport altogether. Participants were registered members of one of 11 state sporting associations in 2015. For this analysis, data (907,150 player records) were amalgamated, and players categorised by sex, age group and residential postcode. Numbers of individual players were estimated using demographic matching, comparing numbers of registrations and numbers of individual participants across age, sex and region. Results showed that the effect of individuals playing multiple sports is highest for ages 5–14, and then it diminishes as specialisation increases. Nevertheless, this study confirms that, after adjustment for this change in behaviour, the drop-off in community sport participation during adolescence persists, i.e. it is real and not simply an artefact of sampling/specialisation behaviour. It is recommended that sport policy focuses on overall participation across sports, taking into account the sampling and specialising phenomena which naturally occur, rather than merely asking individual sports to increase participation.