Spontaneous remission of residual post-therapy plasma Epstein-Barr virus DNA and its prognostic implication in nasopharyngeal carcinoma: A large-scale, big-data intelligence platform-based analysis.

Abstract

Detectable post-therapy plasma Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) DNA predicts poor survival in non-metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). However, some patients subsequently experience spontaneous remission of residual EBV DNA during follow-up and it was unclear whether these patients were still at high risk of disease failure. Using the NPC database from an established big-data intelligence platform, 3269 NPC patients who had the plasma EBV DNA load measured at the end of therapy (± 1 week) were identified. In total, 93.0% (3031/3269) and 7.0% (238/3269) of patients had undetectable and detectable (> 0 copy/ml) plasma EBV DNA at the end of therapy (EBV DNAend ), respectively. Detectable EBV DNAend was a prognostic factor for poorer 3-year disease-free survival (DFS), overall survival (OS), distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS), and loco-regional recurrence-free survival (LRRFS) in both univariate and multivariate analyses. Of 238 patients with residual EBV DNAend , 192 underwent EBV DNA assay 3 months after and spontaneous remission occurred in 72.4% (139/192). However, these patients still had poorer 3-year DFS (55.1% vs. 89.8%), OS (79.1% vs. 96.2%), DMFS (68.4% vs. 94.1%) and LRRFS (84.5% vs. 95.0%) than patients with undetectable EBV DNAend (all p < 0.001). And patients with persistent detectable post-therapy EBV DNA had the worst outcomes. These results were confirmed in multivariate analysis. In conclusion, residual EBV DNA post therapy was a robust biomarker for NPC prognosis. Although residual post-therapy EBV DNA could spontaneous remit during follow-up, these patients were still at high risk of disease failure and such patients may benefit from adjuvant therapy.