Spiral of silence in a post-violent context: the influence of reference groups and fear of being in a minority position

Abstract

ABSTRACTModern democracy is based on the expression of political opinions; however, in democratic societies where political violence exists, it decreases. Once violence is over, the recovery of free speech and the exchange of opinions become a key area for peace studies. This exploratory study investigates the expression of opinions about the violence suffered once it has ended. We focus on the Basque Country where the Euskadi Ta Askatasuna group (ETA, Basque Homeland and Freedom) had been using political violence from 1959 to 2011. Using survey data (N = 257), we investigate how (1) the fear of being in a minority position, (2) the closeness to the reference groups, and (3) the interaction between both variables affect opinion expression. Results show that fear of being in a minority position about violence in the Basque Country decreases opinion expression and that closeness to the reference groups has direct and indirect effect on opinion expression. This study contributes, firstly, to the limited research on the political opinion expression about the violence experienced in the Basque Country, secondly, to the limited research on its peace process, and thirdly, by adopting as reference groups those resulting from the use of violence.