Spine Surgeons Accurately Estimate the Probability of Favorable One-Year Postoperative Lumbar Surgery Outcomes

Abstract

It is important that surgeons be able to make accurate probability estimates as a basis for offering good advice to lumbar surgical candidates. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of spine surgeons' preoperative estimates of the probability of improvement in pain or functional outcomes after lumbar surgery. The study design was that of a prospective cohort study in a group practice setting. Patients aged 18–65, presenting as candidates for surgery with a diagnosis of lumbar radiculopathy and no history of low-back surgery, were asked to participate in the study. Data from 149 surgical patients were included in the analysis. Change in the North American Spine Society (NASS) pain and function instrument was the outcome measure. For patients who were offered surgery, the surgeon estimated the probability that the patient would experience an improvement in pain or function one year after surgery. Patients were surveyed again at 3 and 12 months postsurgery. If the patient's NASS score improv...