Spillover effects from London and Frankfurt to Central and Eastern European stock markets

Abstract

This article investigates comovement in stock markets between the emerging economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and the developed markets of Western Europe. Three approaches are employed to examine this issue. The first two approaches, time-varying realized correlation ratios and cointegration statistics, use a two-step technique to derive time-varying estimates of the comovement between returns on CEE and EU stock exchanges. The first step uses common factor analysis to define the factors driving CEE stock exchanges, while the second step evaluates the relationship between the leading principal factor for CEE countries and the Deutsche Aktien Xchange (DAX) and Financial Times Stock Exchange (FTSE) using time-varying realized correlation and rolling cointegration statistics. The third approach employs Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (MGARCH) techniques to obtain estimates of mean and variance spillover effects.