Spillover After Mammography Guideline Change: Evidence From State-Level Trends

Abstract

Changes to which age groups are recommended for mammography may have affected screening rates for all women. This spillover effect has not previously been shown empirically in a national sample. Using data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System from 2002 to 2018, authors tested whether screening trends at a national level changed after the 2009 U.S. Preventive Services Task Force guideline change. The authors also tested whether state-level screening trends for women aged 40-49 years and 75+ years were associated with screening trends for women aged 50-74 years. Analyses were conducted in March-December 2022. In a model predicting state-level trends in screening for women aged 50-74 years, authors find positive, statistically significant associations with screening trends for women aged 40-49 years (p=0.033) and for women aged 75+ years (p<0.001). Deimplementation is difficult and important for controlling healthcare spending and delivering high value care. However, states most successful at reducing mammography screening rates among those aged 40-49 years and 75+ years also had greater reductions in recommended screening among women aged 50-74 years. More work is needed to understand and mitigate the unintended consequences of deimplementation.