Speed of environmental change frames relative ecological risk in climate change and climate intervention scenarios

Abstract

Stratospheric aerosol injection is a potential method of climate intervention to reduce climate risk as decarbonization efforts continue. However, possible ecosystem impacts from the strategic design of hypothetical intervention scenarios are poorly understood. Two recent Earth system model simulations depict policy-relevant stratospheric aerosol injection scenarios with similar global temperature targets, but a 10-year delay in intervention deployment. Here we show this delay leads to distinct ecological risk profiles through climate speeds, which describe the rate of movement of thermal conditions. On a planetary scale, climate speeds in the simulation where the intervention maintains temperature are not statistically distinguishable from preindustrial conditions. In contrast, rapid temperature reduction following delayed deployment produces climate speeds over land beyond either a preindustrial baseline or no-intervention climate change with present policy. The area exposed to threshold climate speeds places different scenarios in context to their relative ecological risks. Our results support discussion of tradeoffs and timescales in future scenario design and decision-making.