Speed of Adjustment in Dividend Payout Decisions: A Comparative Analysis of Developed and Developing Countries

Abstract

The analysis of dividends payout policy has been apopular subject of research since the middle of the 20thcentury. Despite a huge number of investigations thereis no consensus opinion as to the best practices in thefield. Over the years, different hypotheses have been putforward proposing various methodologies. Some workingpapers underline share repurchase as the best approachtowards payout policy [1]. On the other hand, there aresome investigations which emphasize the opposite pointof view: that dividends are more preferable [2]. Anotherexplanation states that there is no qualifiable difference intypes of payout policy [3]. However, the majority of recentworking papers argue that the best approach is to combine share repurchases and dividends [4].Academic investigations into payout policy began withLintner’s working paper [5]. This research includes notonly financial modeling and results based on regression analysis, but also presents information concerningthe preferences of top-management in payout policydecisions. As a result of interviews with top managers,Lintner identified the existence of a target value fordividend payouts. So, managers tried to maintain theshare of net income attributed to dividends instead ofthe value of dividends themselves. Moreover, Lintnerfound that there is a pertinent speed of adjustment1individend policy. This phenomenon is described by thefact that in case of significant net income changes, firmsdo not pay all the dividends targeted at a specific level ofnet income. Companies only adjust the level of dividendsin the direction of the changes. Lintner also providedan explanation of this fact. It was noted that companies’top management was sure that significant changes in dividends can be negatively appraised by the stock market,especially in case of a fall in the value of dividends. So,managers understate the changes in dividends to betterassure that next year’s profit can cover the new dividends. However, next year’s net income also incurs somefluctuations, so it it is necessary to make some adjustments to dividends. As a result the process of dividendadjustment becomes permanent.The investigation of Brav et al. [6] also was devoted to theanalysis of payout policy, and included interviews with alarge number of CFOs. This research confirms the mainresults of Lintner’s work, but with some limitations. Thestudy carefully analyzed the existence of any target level inpayout decisions. The authors found that only 6% of CFOsdo not target dividends at all. However, in contrast toLintner’s work the majority of CFOs (approximately 40%)answer that their key target is dividends per share. Only28% try to target a dividends payout, and 27% of managers target dividends per share growth. This investigationshows that nowadays, targeting dividends per share is amore common practice than targeting payouts. Despite the fact that these results display some differences fromLintner’s one, they do not reject the hypothesis aboutexistence of dividend smoothing.