Abstract
Nearly 50% of the horses participating in endurance events are eliminated at a veterinary examination (a vet gate). Detecting unfit horses before a health problem occurs and treatment is required is a challenge for veterinarians but is essential for improving equine welfare. We hypothesized that it would be possible to detect unfit horses earlier in the event by measuring heart rate recovery variables. Hence, the objective of the present study was to compute logistic regressions of heart rate, cardiac recovery time and average speed data recorded at the previous vet gate (n-1) and thus predict the probability of elimination during successive phases (n and following) in endurance events. Speed and heart rate data were extracted from an electronic database of endurance events (80–160 km in length) organized in four countries. Overall, 39% of the horses that started an event were eliminated—mostly due to lameness (64%) or metabolic disorders (15%). For each vet gate, logistic regressions of explanatory variables (average speed, cardiac recovery time and heart rate measured at the previous vet gate) and categorical variables (age and/or event distance) were computed to estimate the probability of elimination. The predictive logistic regressions for vet gates 2 to 5 correctly classified between 62% and 86% of the eliminated horses. The robustness of these results was confirmed by high areas under the receiving operating characteristic curves (0.68–0.84). Overall, a horse has a 70% chance of being eliminated at the next gate if its cardiac recovery time is longer than 11 min at vet gate 1 or 2, or longer than 13 min at vet gates 3 or 4. Heart rate recovery and average speed variables measured at the previous vet gate(s) enabled us to predict elimination at the following vet gate. These variables should be checked at each veterinary examination, in order to detect unfit horses as early as possible. Our predictive method may help to improve equine welfare and ethical considerations in endurance events.
Highlights
Endurance riding is an international, long-distance equestrian sport that has been regulated by the Fédération Equestre Internationale (FEI) since 1982
The input variables were average speed (AS), cardiac recovery time (CRT) and heart rate (HR) measured at the previous vet gate (n-1)
In contrast to linear regression, the R2 value derived from logistic regression is not a good indicator of validity because it estimates the percentage of variation in the binary dependent variable (Q or EL) accounted for by the explanatory variables AS, CRT and HR at the previous vet gate (n-1)
Summary
Endurance riding is an international, long-distance equestrian sport that has been regulated by the Fédération Equestre Internationale (FEI) since 1982. Endurance events (ranging from 80 to 160 km in total distance) are split into successive phases of approximately 30– 40km. At the end of each phase, horses are stopped for a veterinary inspection at the "vet gate". The heart rate (HR) is the primary criterion evaluated at the vet gate. The support crews use various cooling techniques to shorten the HR recovery time and enable the horses to pass the veterinary inspection more quickly. It should be noted that the time interval between arrival at the vet gate and the start of the veterinary inspection is counted as part of the overall riding time. Rapid cardiac recovery is a key criterion for success in endurance events. Any horse deemed unfit to continue (due to lameness or excessive fatigue, for example) is immediately withdrawn from the event
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